Economic conditions outlook, June 2025
Surveyed executives increasingly point to changes to trade policy and relationships as a disruptive force they expect to affect the world economy, their countries, and their companies.
The survey data were collected one week before the Iran–Israel conflict began. This article and the data and analysis it sets out should be treated as a perspective at a specific point in time, which seeks to help inform discussion.
The perceived risk from shifts in trade continues to grow, according to the results from our latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions.1 Respondents to this quarter’s survey—which was in the field at the end of May through the first week in June—cite changes in trade policy or relationships as the top disruption to growth in the world economy, in their home economies, and even for their companies. Companies have already made changes as a result. Meanwhile, respondents’ long-standing focus on inflation is fading.
Respondents continue to report less positivity about the state of today’s economy, though their views on near-term economic prospects are more upbeat now than in March.
Executives increasingly focus on trade policy changes
Respondents increasingly point to changes in trade policy—which include tariffs—as a risk to the global economy, their countries’ economic growth, and their companies’ performance. In each case, the share citing these changes as a risk has more than doubled since last June.
